NEW DELHI: The Indian team still has a realistic chance of making it into the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) Final despite the Gabba Test against Australia ending in a draw on Wednesday.
Following the Brisbane draw, Team India, currently at third spot in WTC standings, must secure victories in both the remaining Tests of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to guarantee their qualification into the Finale at Lord’s irrespective of other outcomes.
In the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, four teams still maintain realistic chances of reaching the final, with one additional team holding a slim possibility. No team has yet secured their position in the top two spots, with eight Test matches remaining.
Two wins in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests would elevate India to 60.53 percent, while with Australia’s two losses (vs India) and two potential wins against Sri Lanka would take them to 57.02.
If India attain one win and one draw, they would reach 57.02, allowing Australia to surpass them (58.77) with a 2-0 triumph in Sri Lanka.
The qualification scenarios for India are as follows:
1. If India win the series 2-1, they would need Australia to defeat Sri Lanka by at least 1-0 margin, or for South Africa to lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan.
2. If the series ends in a 2-2 draw, India will finish with a percentage points of 55.26. In this case, for India to qualify for the WTC Final, Australia would need to lose to Sri Lanka by at least a 1-0 margin, or South Africa would need to lose 2-0 to Pakistan.
3. If the series ends in a 1-1 draw, India will finish with a percentage points of 53.51. To qualify for the WTC Final, South Africa would need to lose both Tests to Pakistan, or Australia would need to lose 1-0 to Sri Lanka or draw the series 0-0. A 0-0 draw between Australia and Sri Lanka would leave both teams and India tied at 53.51%, but India would finish ahead due to having more series wins in this cycle (three compared to Australia’s two). However, if Sri Lanka win 2-0, they will surpass India and secure a spot in the final.
4. If India lose the series 1-2, they will finish with a percentage points of 51.75, effectively ruling them out of contention for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. In such a scenario, Australia and South Africa will remain ahead of India in the standings, even if they lose all their remaining Tests. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka will climb to percentage points of 53.85 if they manage a 2-0 series win over Australia.
