Election Symbols of rival parties being drawn on a wall in Kancheepuram town
| Photo Credit: A. Muralidharan
Though the Congress, an ally of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, won the recent byelection to the Erode (East) Assembly constituency, the contest was still seen as one that was primarily between the ruling DMK and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). There has been talk that the AIADMK is weakening, especially after the death of Jayalalithaa, but the party does not seem to have lost its strength completely. The two Dravidian parties have been, and continue to be, the primary players in elections ever since the AIADMK emerged as a main player in the 1973 Dindigul Lok Sabha byelection.
Between the 1977 and 2021 Assembly polls, the two parties together accounted for about 60% of the vote share. In 2016 and 2021, their combined vote share rose to more than 70%. A possible reason for this could be that they were contesting from a higher number of seats compared to the past. Only in 1977 and 2006 was their vote share less than 60%. Contrary to the perception in some circles that the DMK and AIADMK’s allies depend on them for survival, election data underscores the fact that the allies are useful to the two majors. The collective vote share of the allies was 32% in 1980 and 30% in 2011. Other than these two years, on six occasions, the vote share of the allies was between 28% (1984) and 14% (2021). Only on three elections (1977, 1989 and 2016) was the vote share in single digits. A stronger and cohesive alliance ensured that the dominant party captured or retained power, as was seen in 1984, 2001, 2006 and 2021.
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Despite the Dravidian majors getting adequate help from their allies on many occasions, the general impression is that they are invincible in Tamil Nadu. This is one of the key reasons why no third force has been able to emerge in the State. While it could be argued that the first-past-the-post system does not permit more than two effective contestants, that does not mean that there cannot be any alternative force. Till the AIADMK became a principal player, the space of the principal Opposition party was occupied by the Congress (Organisation). In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress has been swiftly replaced by the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), which is now the ruling party in the State. The YSRCP’s ascent to power dispelled initial doubts about its ability to take on the two established players in the State. The Aam Aadmi Party too has become a principal player in Delhi and Punjab by upsetting the bipolar system.
Attempts to end dominance
In Tamil Nadu, over the last 45 years or so, many parties have attempted to end the dominance of the two major parties. In 1977, the Congress and the Janata contested alone, bagging 17.51% (27 Assembly seats) and 16.66% (10 Assembly seats) of the votes polled, respectively. Yet, they could not build on their vote base. Twelve years later, the Congress made a serious attempt to capture power and the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited the State often. Yet, the party obtained a vote share of 19.83% with 26 seats.
In 1996, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) tried to present itself as a third alternative by stitching an alliance with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Janata Dal. The MDMK could not win a single seat and its two allies won only one seat each. The coalition’s vote share was 7.9%. There were two other smaller formations – the BJP, and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)-Congress (Tiwari) – which were in the fray independently and fetched 6.4%. In the election which was otherwise regarded as an anti-Jayalalithaa verdict, around 16% of the votes went to non-AIADMK and non-DMK forces. Ten years later, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), contesting alone, got 8.38% with one seat. At that time, there was public curiosity when a group of IIT alumni came together to form the Lok Paritran party and contested in seven constituencies. In 2016, there were four formations — PMK, BJP, People’s Welfare Front and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) — which tried their luck independently and polled, together, a little over 15%.
Even in 2021, when most of the smaller parties got accommodated in either of the fronts led by the DMK and the AIADMK, 11.5% of the votes went collectively to the NTK and coalitions led by the Makaal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). A post-poll survey by Lokniti-CSDS revealed then that 55% of the surveyed voters agreed with the idea of a political alternative to the two dominant fronts.
It is a fact that there is a yearning for a strong alternative force. But the parties that have projected themselves as credible alternatives to the DMK and the AIADMK have not been able to sustain their campaign for long, and have invariably aligned with either of the two majors. So far, the only exception has been the NTK, which contested two Assembly elections independently. The DMK and AIADMK also woo the parties that can make a difference to their electoral prospects. Even though both of them no longer have the benefit of the charisma of their leaders, the other parties find it difficult to match their organisational network and ability to mop up resources. The State president of the BJP, K. Annamalai, has been aggressively seeking to present his party as a principal alternative. He is not unaware of the shortcomings of his party in the State, but the one factor that could help him is that the BJP is in power at the Centre.
Note: All figures are approximate. In 1989, the votes polled by two factions of the AIADMK have been taken into account while calculating the combined vote share of the DMK and the AIADMK for the year.
ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in
Source: Election Commission of India, Tamil Nadu Assembly records
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