In the ferocious civil war between ethnic rebel groups and the junta (military) in Myanmar, the Arakan Army, the biggest of all the rebel groups, is now in control of large parts of the Rakhine province. The security dynamics along Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh have considerably altered in the second week of December as the junta lost control over the area.
This uncertainty is bound to have a spillover effect along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, raising concerns of a fresh wave of Rohingya refugees attempting to escape the region. Myanmar has been consumed by civil war after the military coup in 2021, which ousted the democratically-run government.
For the world grappling with wars in Europe and West Asia, Myanmar’s strife is forgotten. Except as the looming reality for its neighbours, the world doesn’t seem to remember the disastrous events unfolding within Myanmar and the volatile politics consuming it. India is closely watching the developments as there may be implications.
Why the continuing strife?
Deprived of fair play, various ethnic armed organisations like the Arakan Army have been battling the military since independence for autonomy and control of beneficial resources.
The Arakan Army is part of the anti-junta group called Three Brotherhood Alliance (the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army are the other two). The same alliance had initiated an assault in October 2023, gaining several considerable wins along Myanmar’s border with China.
In August this year, the alliance gained command of the north-eastern town of Lashio, indicating the first capture of a regional military command in Myanmar’s history.
There are even reports that the Arakan Army now commands areas inside Bangladesh along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border and that may lead to a fight between Bangladesh Army and the Arakan Army and exacerbate the security crisis in the region.
Experts say the Arakan Army operates as the military wing of the ULA (United League of Arakan), the political organisation of the Buddhist people in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state.
In the last 15 months, the Arakan Army has gained ground, capturing dozens of townships and military outposts. The group’s continuous capture of regions in its fold have raised questions about its motive.
Myanmar has never recognised the Rohingya community residing in the Rakhine province as its citizens. In 2017, after a brutal crackdown on Rohingya villages by Myanmar’s military, hundreds of thousands Rohingya fled across the border into neighbouring Bangladesh to escape the atrocities. India has faced an influx of Rohingya refugees since then.
As of now, keeping a larger picture of Rakhine province’s autonomy, the Arakan Army wants to project the Rohingya as their own, but in the past, the organisation is known to have committed deadly atrocities against the community.
Highlighting the events of the region, Sripathi Narayanan, foreign and security policy analyst, said, “The Rohingya have been used as cannon fodder by both the junta and the rebels. Much of the supplies of the AA (Arakan Army) come from across the western border of Myanmar. The communities across the border also share fraternal ties with one another.”
India’s interests
India’s attitude towards Myanmar has been mixed as it has been facing its own problems in the northeast, particularly in Manipur, for the past 20 months, and the arrival of Christian and Buddhist refugees from Myanmar have further complicated the issues.
There are fears about advanced weaponry in the hands of Myanmar’s rebel groups reaching terrorist groups operating in India’s northeastern states. Also, there are reports of Myanmar’s rebel groups increasing drug trafficking activities to raise funds, which is another major concern for India.
Sensing the risks, the Centre recently tightened the rules for the movement of people from either side of the border in India and Myanmar. The new rules further restrict the movement of people from 16 km under the free movement regime (FMR) to 10 km now, on either side.
A common trait of the ever-altering political scenario of India’s neighbourhood – be it Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or Myanmar – is their growing reliance on China. This offers Beijing with chances to further contain India’s influence in the Global South as a part of its known strategy.
The political turmoil in Myanmar and Bangladesh can be used by China to its advantage to foment further internal troubles in the northeastern border states of India.
China has been engaging with the junta and the rebel groups to derive the maximum protection of its own interests in Myanmar. Beijing has invested billions into the country’s oil and gas sector, as well as other physical infrastructure. The Myanmar military controls Kyaukphyu, a major town in Rakhine state that is the terminus of a $1.5 billion oil pipeline and a parallel natural gas pipeline running to Kunming, the capital of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.
The pipelines are a major part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which is an important part of Beijing’s ambitious BRI (Belt and Road Initiative).
With the help of the Arakan Army, China also wants to keep an eye on India’s Kaladan project in Rakhine, which is meant to connect the Bay of Bengal with India’s northeast. However, the Kaladan project, which entails building new port facilities at Sittwe (Rakhine province capital), a river transit system and a road to India’s Mizoram state, seems to be delayed. It would have also reduced India’s dependence on Bangladesh for its transit routes. Now, India may have to engage with the Arakan Army, a non-state actor, for starting the delayed project work.
India is engaging both with the rebel group and the military government, and has initiated other diplomatic channels.
“In the past few months, India has started benign engagement with the rebel groups/EAOs (also called Ethnic Armed Organisations) in the regions bordering India because we want to keep our strategic interests of protecting the northeast region at priority,” says Cchavi Vasisht, senior research associate, Chintan Research Foundation.
“We need to make further efforts to increase our engagements with AA. To protect our bordering areas as well as the Kaladan project which crosses through the Rakhine state,” she adds.
As a way out, there is a need to facilitate dialogue between the rebel groups and junta for initiating an inclusive democratic process where all communities have a say. “India has been vocalising its concerns with respect to Myanmar, it wants a smooth transition of the country into a federal and democratic setup,” says Ms Vasisht.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
