by Robert A. Scott
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This is the time of year when many campus presidents anxiously await reports from the admissions staff on fall enrollment prospects. The results can determine whether there will be personnel layoffs and a delay in launching a new program, or a return to offering a cash match for the 403b retirement program. The admissions staff may hedge their forecasts or explain a decline by citing population statistics. An alert president will ask to see the admissions funnel and how the results for this year compare to the past several years. An expanded funnel can help even more.
The “funnel” is used as a tool by college admissions officers to present enrollment management data. The funnel is an apt metaphor because the larger pool of prospects who have inquired about the college is shown at the wide top of the funnel and the smaller number of students who enroll is shown at the narrow bottom. Most funnels are segmented to show inquiries, applications, admits, and enrolled. Useful funnel reports will also include comparative data over time. However, a more useful funnel would show data for additional elements as shown below.
Public colleges and smaller private colleges tend to recruit students in a defined region. Most do not recruit nationally. Therefore, an even more useful funnel report would show data for the following elements over a five-year period, starting with the high school population:
- The number of high school graduates in the catchment area
- The number of students who inquire and ask for information
- The number of students who apply for admission
- The number of applicants who are admitted
- The financial aid awarded by applicant type, both need-based and merit-based
- The number of messages sent to encourage those who are admitted to submit their deposit
- The number of matriculants, i.e., the number who register for classes
- The tuition discount rate
- The net tuition revenue from the incoming class of students
With these data elements in a matrix showing a five-year history, and updated regularly, a campus president can monitor the progress of the most important source of revenue, tuition, and one of the more significant areas of expenditure, tuition discounts. The data should be easily available by the admissions team and institutional research staff.
The resulting chart becomes a map of the decision tree that is college admissions. Each point in the decision tree — inquiry, application, offer, deposit, and matriculation — is a point of leverage for the college to engage in communications with students to encourage their decision to join the campus. The funnel also can help monitor the success of efforts to limit the number of students who withdraw during the spring and summer, i.e., it can help “reduce the melt” of those who do send a deposit.
The funnel provides the data necessary to calculate the “yield” on offers of admission, even by academic qualifications and by scholarship amount. The yield is the measure of success in offers and matriculants, with high yield the optimum goal. Yield can be a surrogate for measuring the attractiveness and selectivity of the institution. The data also provide a means of measuring the percentage of applicants who are admitted. In most cases, it is more desirable to have a lower rather than a higher percentage of applicants admitted.
The chart is a tool for campus leaders to monitor how the admissions staff is doing its job of marketing, communicating, and managing the process of recruiting and enrolling a first-year class. A companion chart can help keep track of communications with high school guidance counselors and visits to schools.
Another set of data useful for managing the admissions process is that concerned with student retention. These data can help the admissions staff analyze individual student prospects for success by comparing him or her to other students who have come from the same high school. Enrollment management is about retention as well as recruitment and these data can be helpful in arriving at admissions decisions.
The expanded funnel is a data tool useful for campus presidents and senior campus leaders, as well as admissions staff, in analyzing recruitment success, admissions decisions, and financial aid allocations.
