NAGPUR: As Maharashtra gears up for assembly polls, all eyes are on Vidarbha, where the contest between the BJP and Congress is set to shape the outcome of the elections.
This region, once a Congress stronghold, has experienced a shift in recent years, with BJP making considerable inroads. However, the upcoming elections could mark a turning point as both sides brace for a fierce battle.
Vidarbha’s transition began after 2014 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity surged, propelling BJP to power.The party has consolidated its position over the last decade, but recent trends, especially the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, hint at a potential Congress resurgence. In these elections, Congress, alongside its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners, secured 7 of 10 parliamentary seats in the region — a warning sign for BJP ahead of assembly polls.
The upcoming polls will have BJP and Congress fielding their most prominent leaders. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and forest minister Sudhir Mungantiwar will represent the former while Congress will rely on heavyweights like MPCC president Nana Patole and Leader of Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar. These are candidates with strong grassroots connections and are expected to shape voter sentiment.
BJP’s dominance in Vidarbha began to falter in 2019 assembly elections. The party, which had won an overwhelming 44 seats in 2014, saw its tally drop to 33, while Congress and its ally, NCP, made much gains. Congress alone won 15 seats, a testament to its efforts in reviving its base in the region.
This time, the scenario is even more complicated due to fragmentation. Both Shiv Sena and NCP have split, but the factions are aligned with the two main alliances — BJP-led Mahayuti and Congress-led MVA. Observers believe that while the alliances were forged with an opportunistic eye on electoral gain, they could confuse voters who have traditional party loyalties.
Key issues like farm distress, rising inflation, and unemployment are likely to play arole in shaping voter preferences in Vidarbha. The region, which relies heavily on agriculture, has been particularly affected by these problems, with many farmers struggling to realise remunerative prices for their produce. Caste dynamics may also influence the election as various communities weigh their options.
BJP faces additional challenges following its poor showing in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where it managed to win only three of 10 seats in Vidarbha. A senior BJP leader with ties to RSS, however, expressed confidence in the party’s prospects. “We are focusing on issue-based politics, particularly social welfare and development initiatives, which resonate with the peo- ple,” he told TOI. He added that BJP’s core support base remains strong and he expects a surge in its voting percentage as people are likely to reconsider their choices after the Lok Sabha polls.
On the other hand, Congress leaders are optimistic about maintaining their momentum. Former MPCC chief Manikrao Thakre is confident that MVA will replicate its success from the parliamentary elections. “MVA alliance is in afavourable situation, despite the current govt’s efforts to sway voters with schemes like the Ladli Bahin Yojana,” he said. Thakre believes BJP’s appeal has waned, particularly in Vidarbha.
