How to Avoid the Arrival Fallacy and the Tenure Slump

Have you ever thought to yourself, “If I get this job, then I’ll be happy”? There are other variations of this conditional reasoning that depend on time, achievement, and life and career situations, but the “I’ll-be-happy-when” mindset is called the “arrival fallacy.”

Coined by the behavioral scientist Tal Ben-Shahar, the arrival fallacy describes the commonly held illusion “that once we make it, once we attain our goal or reach our destination, we will reach lasting happiness,” Ben-Shahar told the New York Times.

Many professionals are susceptible to this thinking, anticipating a promotion or leadership change, but those who work in higher education especially succumbed to the arrival fallacy. They strive toward distant or elusive goalposts: “When I get this Ph.D., then I’ll be set,” “If I get funded through this grant, then I’ll be good,” or “Once I get tenure, then I’ll have arrived.”

This is a precarious way to live, and most higher education professionals wind up feeling unfulfilled.

Sara Mitchell recalls sitting in her car and crying after defending her dissertation. The reason for these emotions differs for each person, with the varying pressures, expectations, and personal investments that people place on themselves and their careers.

“There is so much stress to get to that point, and then you let your guard down,” said Mitchell, now an F. Wendell Miller professor of political science at the University of Iowa. “It was a good lesson that in academia, your work is never done.”

Mitchell’s example is one of at least four reasons why the arrival fallacy can be damaging to people’s well-being and their career decisions. They occur by:

1. Having a false sense of completion: You end up feeling like Sisyphus from Greek mythology, forever pushing a boulder up a hill.
2. Not enjoying the process: You toil for so long to reach a goal that you resent working in a perceived all-or-nothing pursuit.
3. Career deferral: You keep waiting to be validated with a title or responsibility, or have enough time and money, only to fail to reach your potential.
4. Chasing an illusion: You heighten your expectations of happiness, and upon reaching your goal (better salary or title or more power), you find it unsatisfying, leaving you either disenchanted or hungry for something else.

Overestimating one’s happiness from an event is the result of something called “affective forecasting,” which researchers studied decades ago by asking assistant professors, prior to being considered for tenure, how happy they thought achieving that goal would make them. Most professors were never as happy as they predicted.

“There’s this ‘tenure slump’ where once you get tenure, you have feelings of depression or sadness,” Mitchell said. “People feel sad because so much is at stake in that process. If you are denied tenure, there’s a stigma that can come with, even if you get another job, that can be difficult to overcome. But even if you get tenure, you put so much of your academic life into it, that it can be like, ‘OK, well, now what do I do?'”

Mitchell observed colleagues who had a sense of relief, saying, “I’m finally done,” without considering there’s more work to be done, either becoming full professor or taking on more responsibilities.

“People don’t want to hear that, after this thing that they’ve been working on for so long, there’s another track that follows,” Mitchell said. “We are not often given advice about (post-tenure life) and whether to pursue administration or to stay in academia and the tradeoffs of those career paths.”

Mitchell’s observation leads into the first of these five ways to avoid the trap of the arrival fallacy:

Segment Your Career

Despite having a long credentialing process, higher education professionals shouldn’t think of their careers as this one shot at success, resulting in either “have” or “have-not.” Break portions of your career into seasons, such as Growth, Lifestyle, and Reinvention, that have attainable victories within each phase. Sure, there are winners and losers depending on which scoreboard you’re using, but trials taken in smaller parts build your unique contribution. “I try to set a 10-year plan (and ask), ‘What are the things that I want to achieve and how am I going to get there?,'” Mitchell said.

Celebrate Every Victory

As you achieve goals along the way, whether it’s getting published in a journal or being promoted to director, take time to reflect on your success before jumping to what’s next. “It’s exciting when you get accepted in a top journal, but it’s short-lived,” Mitchell said. “Make sure you celebrate your successes in a meaningful way, whether that’s going out to dinner with your family or buying yourself something nice.” Mitchell also points to the European model of dissertation defenses that involves an elaborate reception and fanfare around the presentation.

Focus on Intrinsic Motivation

There’s nothing wrong with ambition and pursuing the next milestone, but many people suffer when they are motivated by extrinsic objectives more than — and often at the expense of — intrinsic desires. They don’t see pleasure in expressing their abilities and interests. They don’t appreciate things like autonomy, mastery, and community. They don’t enjoy the process. Researchers have found that “focusing on extrinsic life goals is linked both to decreased flourishing and increased floundering.”

Avoid Unhappiness

The problem with thinking, “If X happens, then I’ll be happy,” is the unknown. You might not know how you’ll react to your desired outcome. You could be wasting your life chasing what your profession or culture is telling you what you should want. Try flipping the script by asking yourself, “If X happens, then I’ll be unhappy.” Then avoid X. This doesn’t mean you should seek comfort and stop striving. It’s quite the opposite if you recognize the consequences of your stasis. But you might have many deal-breakers or experiences you want to avoid (bad boss, long commute, etc.) compared to having that one dream job. Sometimes happiness is found in the pursuit away from unhappiness.

Invest in Relationships

If you really want something to fixate on during your journey, consider what Ben-Shahar told the New York Times while discussing the arrival fallacy: “The No. 1 predictor of happiness (is the) quality time we spend with people we care about and who care about us. In other words, relationships.” Mitchell agreed: “The key is to have a goal of helping people, because at any stage of your career, if you’re helping people, then you can find happiness,” she said. “Putting too much emphasis on specific goalposts can be problematic.”